According to @StockMKTNewz, the market is debating whether the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 could deliver a third consecutive year of 20%+ gains, a setup that would underscore a sustained risk-on regime if realized (source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Oct 6, 2025). For crypto traders, extended equity momentum has coincided with tighter co-movement between BTC and major stock indices, with the IMF documenting that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 rose markedly during 2020–2021 and that cross-asset spillovers increased (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022). This linkage implies that equity shocks can transmit to crypto volatility, making it actionable to monitor 30–90 day rolling BTC–SPX and BTC–QQQ correlations when positioning BTC and ETH exposure (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022). Derivatives gauges such as perpetual funding rates and futures basis help detect overheating during synchronized equity–crypto rallies, with data available from major venues like Deribit for perpetuals and CME for listed BTC futures (source: Deribit product documentation; CME Group Bitcoin futures resources).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 is up about 40 percent over the last six months, gold is nearing 4,000 US dollars per ounce, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record 2.5 trillion US dollars in market capitalization, and the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Oct 5, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the thread frames this as a cross-asset surge versus US Dollar weakness and asks whether markets are that strong or the Dollar is just crashing, providing a trading context across equities, gold, BTC, and the Dollar trend (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week at a fresh all-time high, its 31st new high of 2025 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Oct 4, 2025). Bilello also shared a YouTube video with additional context on the SPX advance (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Oct 4, 2025). For crypto traders, IMF research documents that since 2020 Bitcoin has shown higher correlation with U.S. equities, making equity record highs relevant for BTC and ETH risk sentiment (source: IMF blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Jan 11, 2022). Given these documented spillovers, monitoring BTC and ETH behavior during U.S. sessions following equity breakouts is relevant for positioning and risk management (source: IMF blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Jan 11, 2022).

According to Evan (@StockMKTNewz), all four major U.S. stock indexes printed new intraday all-time highs today, indicating broad-based market strength in the current U.S. session (source: @StockMKTNewz, Oct 3, 2025). For crypto market participants, this synchronized equity breakout provides a real-time risk backdrop to reference when assessing intraday flows in BTC and ETH during U.S. trading hours (source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 has stayed above its 50-day moving average for 106 sessions, marking the longest streak in a year and the fifth-longest in the past 30 years, source: @KobeissiLetter. Five more sessions would make it the third-longest stretch in 30 years, with the all-time record at 149 sessions in 2007, source: @KobeissiLetter. The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ has been above its 50-day moving average for 107 sessions, its longest run since 2017, source: @KobeissiLetter. Market momentum has rarely been stronger based on these streaks, underscoring trend strength that traders are monitoring, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the US stock market is starting the day green (source: @StockMKTNewz). The update does not specify which indices or the size of gains, only that the open is positive (source: @StockMKTNewz). Equity–crypto co-movement has risen since 2020, making a green equity open a relevant input for BTC and ETH intraday bias (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022). Traders can monitor BTC and ETH versus S&P 500 moves during the US cash session to gauge correlation strength today (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns during the last six U.S. government shutdowns, and the index rose 0.4% in the prior session to a new all-time high; source: Charlie Bilello on X, Oct 2, 2025, and bilello.blog/newsletter. For traders, this pattern of SPX resilience during shutdowns aligns with elevated stock‑crypto correlations observed since 2020, informing cross-asset risk positioning; source: IMF Global Financial Stability Note, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, January 2022. Monitoring SPX trend alongside BTC and ETH is warranted given IMF-documented increases in shock transmission between equities and crypto markets; source: IMF 2022 and Charlie Bilello on X, Oct 2, 2025.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the S&P 500 closed above 6,700 for the first time ever on Oct 1, 2025, setting a new all-time closing milestone for the index, according to @StockMKTNewz. According to the International Monetary Fund, Bitcoin and U.S. stock returns have shown higher co-movement since 2020, which makes major U.S. equity milestones relevant to crypto risk sentiment, according to the International Monetary Fund’s 2022 analysis of crypto–stock market linkages.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 crossed above 6,700 for the first time in history less than 24 hours after the U.S. government shutdown began (source: @KobeissiLetter). The source states that the average 12-month return after a shutdown ends is +13% (source: @KobeissiLetter). Based on the source’s stated levels, a move from 6,700 to the cited ~7,600 12-month marker implies roughly +13.4% upside, consistent with the historical average noted (source: @KobeissiLetter). Crypto traders can monitor this equity benchmark and the 7,600 reference cited by the source as a cross-asset risk gauge when planning positioning and hedges (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Dow turned positive intraday while the S&P 500 trimmed losses to -0.1% as investors bought the government shutdown dip, signaling demand into weakness in major indices; Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Oct 1, 2025, https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1973245313952755971 According to @KobeissiLetter, government shutdown selloffs have historically been bought over the long run, reinforcing a recurring buy-the-dip pattern that equity traders may lean on during headline risk; Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Oct 1, 2025, https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1973245313952755971 According to @KobeissiLetter, the observed dip-buying indicates a risk-on tone today, a signal short-term traders can use for positioning in US index exposures during shutdown-related volatility; Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Oct 1, 2025, https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1973245313952755971 According to @KobeissiLetter, crypto market participants can monitor whether equity dip-buying supports broader risk sentiment intraday, as the highlighted risk-on shift in stocks may influence cross-asset appetite; Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Oct 1, 2025, https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1973245313952755971

According to @KobeissiLetter, the average U.S. government shutdown lasts about 8 days, framing a relatively short event window for risk management and positioning (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 finished higher one year after a shutdown in 86% of cases with an average gain of about 13%, underscoring historically favorable 12‑month equity returns after resolution (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, during the 35‑day 2018 shutdown, the S&P 500 rallied roughly 11%, highlighting the potential for a risk‑on tape even amid prolonged closures (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. defers about $400 million per day in costs during a shutdown and the Fed generally turns more dovish if government data releases are paused, shaping rate‑path expectations and liquidity conditions (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025). Stock‑crypto correlation has risen since 2020, so if equities firm on a shutdown‑related dovish shift, BTC and ETH often echo risk‑on moves, which traders can incorporate into cross‑asset strategies (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 11, 2022). According to @KobeissiLetter, monitoring the shutdown timeline and the restart of economic data is key for timing potential shifts in Fed expectations that can ripple through SPX, yields, DXY, VIX, and crypto beta (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Oct 1, 2025).

According to @EricBalchunas, despite warnings of a potential US government shutdown, the S&P 500 reaction was described as 'Meh' at the time of his post, signaling muted immediate equity impact, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025. The post indicates equities were not aggressively repricing shutdown risk at that moment and provided no crypto-specific signals, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025. For crypto market participants, especially in BTC and ETH, the takeaway is to monitor cross-asset sentiment and price action for any delayed spillover rather than headlines alone, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025.

According to the source, traders are comparing BTC and the S&P 500 as AI-led equity momentum reshapes risk appetite (source: discussion context). Over long horizons, the S&P 500 has delivered roughly 10% nominal annualized total returns including dividends, providing a benchmark for equity compounding (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices). Since 2011, BTC has produced substantially higher cumulative returns but with multiple cycle drawdowns exceeding 75% and persistently higher realized volatility than equities (source: Coin Metrics). BTC’s rolling correlation with tech-heavy equity indices turned positive for extended periods in 2023–2024 during AI-led equity rallies, but the relationship remained unstable and regime-dependent (source: Kaiko; S&P Dow Jones Indices). AI mega-cap concentration drove a large share of S&P 500 gains in 2023–2024, led by NVIDIA (NVDA), making index performance more sensitive to tech factors also relevant for crypto beta (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices). For positioning, consider a barbell: express BTC exposure for crypto-specific catalysts while hedging equity beta with index futures during risk-on correlation spikes (source: Kaiko; CME Group).

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).

According to @business, US equities have shrugged off warnings for the past five months, but the rally is cooling as October turbulence and earnings season approach, prompting caution from Wall Street veterans; source: Bloomberg/@business tweet dated Sep 27, 2025. Equity–crypto correlations rose during 2022 risk episodes and remained time‑varying into 2024, implying potential spillovers to BTC and ETH if US stocks wobble; source: Kaiko research on BTC–equity correlations (2022–2024). Traders can monitor S&P 500 futures and the VIX to track risk sentiment into earnings, with VIX representing the market’s 30‑day expected volatility of S&P 500 options; source: CME Group E‑mini S&P 500 contract information and Cboe VIX methodology. Crypto market participants should watch for cross‑asset moves during earnings headlines as correlation clusters can tighten quickly in risk‑off regimes; source: Kaiko cross‑asset correlation updates (2022–2024).

According to @ReutersBiz, President Trump's new tariffs boosted shares of Paccar (PCAR) and Eli Lilly (LLY), while broader markets posted gains across major U.S. indexes, indicating a positive equity session for cyclicals and healthcare defensives (source: Reuters Business). For crypto traders, increased equity breadth matters because Bitcoin and stocks have shown higher co-movement in recent years, with BTC’s correlation to the S&P 500 rising materially during risk-on phases (source: International Monetary Fund). Traders can monitor BTC and ETH during U.S. trading hours and tariff-related headlines for potential cross-asset flow-through and liquidity shifts (sources: Reuters Business; International Monetary Fund).

According to @EricBalchunas, CYBER HORNET has filed for an exchange-traded fund that combines S&P 500 exposure with XRP (XRP), and he also notes ETH (ETH), Solana (SOL) and SPX are referenced, with a proposed ticker XXX; source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 26, 2025. The post does not include a filing number, issuer legal details, or listing venue information; source: Eric Balchunas on X, Sep 26, 2025.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the US stock market closed the day in the red, signaling a negative daily finish for US equities. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Sep 25, 2025. The post did not include index-level details or percentage moves; traders should verify S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow closing data and monitor BTC and ETH for liquidity and volatility shifts around the U.S. close and Asia open before adjusting risk. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Sep 25, 2025.

According to @business, US stocks are extremely expensive versus history, but Bank of America strategists say the S&P 500’s sky-high valuations may be warranted and reflect a new normal rather than a bubble. Source: Bloomberg @business, 2025-09-24. No direct crypto commentary was provided, but traders in risk assets can monitor US equity sentiment as a macro input for positioning. Source: Bloomberg @business, 2025-09-24.

According to @StockMKTNewz, AppLovin (APP) will become an S&P 500 constituent at the U.S. market open tomorrow, with the change effective on the opening print; source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Sep 21, 2025. Passive S&P 500 trackers such as SPY and VOO seek to replicate the index and will adjust holdings to include APP around the effective time, typically creating mechanical buy demand and elevated liquidity; sources: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust prospectus; Vanguard 500 Index Fund prospectus. S&P Dow Jones Indices implements constituent changes effective prior to market open on the announced date, concentrating trading activity in the implementation window; source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P U.S. Indices Methodology and Corporate Actions Policies. Index addition events have historically shown short-term volume spikes and price effects around the effective window that traders may attempt to fade or follow intraday; sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices research on index rebalances; academic literature on index additions (e.g., Chen and Norli, 2004). For crypto, there is no direct on-chain impact, but cross-asset risk appetite around the U.S. cash open can coincide with BTC and ETH correlation shifts versus U.S. equities, so monitoring crypto liquidity during the opening hour is prudent; sources: Fidelity Digital Assets 2023 research on BTC–equity correlations; Coin Metrics correlation analyses.